# thoughts…

## Think Bayes

Think Bayes is an introduction to Bayesian statistics using computational methods. This version of the book is a rough draft. I am making this draft available for comments, but it comes with the warning that it is probably full of errors.

If you find some of those errors, please let me know. But it is probably too early to bother with typos.

Think Bayes is a Free Book. It is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License, which means that you are free to copy, distribute, and modify it, as long as you attribute the work and don’t use it for commercial purposes…”

http://www.greenteapress.com/thinkbayes/

## Understanding Bayesian statistics and Visualizing Bayes’ theorem

“Some years ago, I got into an argument with someone abut the relative merits of Bayesian versus Maximum Likelihood in phylogenetics. They asserted the two were basically the same or would come to the same answers. I countered that while they would often agree, they were measuring different things. Our conversation subsequently got bogged down in a technical discussion that clarified nothing.
Bayesian statistics can be difficult to explain, can involve several foggy and seemingly obscure concepts, and explanations are frequently illustrated (obsfucated?) with cryptic maths. So here is a maths-light approach to help you get an intuitive grasp on the concept. Experts, be warned that I’ll cut a few corners and gloss over a few things…”
“I recently came up with what I think is an intuitive way to explain Bayes’ Theorem. I searched in googlefor a while and could not find any article that explains it in this particular way.Of course there’s the wikipedia page, that long articleby Yudkowsky, and a bunch of other explanations and tutorials. But none of them have any pictures. So without further ado, and with all the chutzpah I can gather, here goes my explanation…”
“This post is elementary: it introduces a simple method of visualizing Bayesian calculations. In my defense, we’ve had other elementary posts before, and they’ve been found useful; plus, I’d really like this to be online somewhere, and it might as well be here…”

http://lesswrong.com/lw/2b0/bayes_theorem_illustrated_my_way