Bayes’s Theorem: What’s the Big Deal?

“Bayes’s theorem, touted as a powerful method for generating knowledge, can also be used to promote superstition and pseudoscience…”

“Of the countless explanations on the web, ones I’ve found especially helpful include Yudkowsky’s essay, Wikipedia’s entry and shorter pieces by philosopher Curtis Brown and computers scientists Oscar Bonilla andKalid Azad. In this post, I’ll try to explain—primarily for my own benefit—what Bayes is all about. I trust kind readers will, as usual, point out any errors.*…”